China's population shrinks for the first time in more than 60 years

 

mpr21
January 18th, 2024 

China's population shrank at a faster rate last year than in previous years as births fell to a record low, accelerating a demographic shift that poses significant challenges.

China has been surpassed by India as the most populous country in the world. The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China fell by 2.08 million, or 0.15 percent, to 1.409 million last year.

This is much larger than the population decline of 850,000 in 2022, which was the first since 1961 during a period of famine as a result of drought and poor harvests.

The total number of deaths increased by 6.6 percent last year to reach 11.1 million, with the death rate reaching its highest level since 1974.

The birth rate is the lowest since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949. It reached a minimum of 6.39 births per 1,000 inhabitants, below the rate of 6.77 births in 2022.

Births hit a new low last year. They fell 5.7 percent to 9.02 million. The slowdown in birth rates comes despite a government push to encourage more married couples to have children, after decades of restrictive birth policies.

There are fewer people getting married and fewer couples wanting to have children.

The active population is also shrinking

The decline in the birth rate coincides with the reduction in the active population and the rapid aging of the population: a double challenge for the Chinese government, which must face the financing of healthcare and pensions for older citizens, while while trying to maintain growth in an economy with fewer people of working age.

China's workforce, that is, those aged 16 to 59, declined by 10.75 million last year, adding to the ongoing contraction. The population over 60 years of age, for its part, continued to grow. More than a fifth of the population, or almost 297 million people, is now in that age group.

The growing number of elderly forces to change certain aspects of the government's economic policy. The State Council, China's highest administrative body, last week published a series of guidelines to adapt its services to the elderly in housing, health and finance. Local governments should support facilities for elderly residents.

Last year in at least four cities, thousands of elderly people took to the streets to protest cuts to monthly medical benefits implemented by local governments to address deficits.

Economic growth weakens

The demographic change comes at a time when the country's growth is weakening. The National Bureau of Statistics confirmed that the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent last year. It is one of the country's worst economic results in more than three decades.

There are economic results that are “bad” or “good,” depending on who looks at them. For example, in December new home prices fell by the most in almost nine years.

Despite the price declines, home sales per square meter fell 8.5 percent last year, marking the second consecutive year of decline.

Due to the aging of the population, calculations predict that demand for housing will decrease in the coming years, which will drag down the sector and affect its growth prospects.

The real estate sector has played a leading role in the Chinese economy, accounting for up to 30 percent of GDP. Real estate assets represent around 70 percent, the largest proportion, of household wealth.

For about three years the sector has entered into crisis, following a restriction on loans to developers promoted by the government.

However, industrial production rose 6.8 percent in December, above expectations. It was the fastest growth since February 2022. By 2023, industrial production increased by 4.6 percent, up from 3.6 percent in 2022.

Retail sales also rose 7.4 percent last year, reversing the 0.2 percent decline in 2022. 

 

Source: https://mpr21.info/la-poblacion-de-china-se-reduce-por-primera-vez-en-mas-de-60-anos/