Stefano Scoglio
March 28, 2020
I made this post for my English-speaking friends to explain what is really happening in Italy and with the coronavirus crisis.
Given that SARS-CoV 2 has been implicated as causing very severe and unique respiratory symptoms (Covid-19), can anyone provide me with the study that proves this? I am sure you are familiar with Koch's 4 postulates, which are the foundation of all microbiological research.
So, where is the study in which they isolated the virus; in which they cultured it; injected it as a purified virus into an animal; recorded both the symptoms that the virus should cause, and its significant proliferation in the host?
This is the only type of study that can prove causality in relation to a disease by any organism (the virus obviously cannot even be defined as an organism, but the rules are also valid for viruses).
I have searched a lot for such a study, but have not been able to find it. It's certainly due to my limitations, so I'll be happy to be enlightened by anyone who can (I doubt anyone will, though).
There is the further problem of identifying and detecting the virus. At GISAID, the international genomics institute, there are several different genome sequences of SARS-Cov-2, which suggests that we are talking about different viruses; or that they simply don't know what they're doing.
As for virus detection, various studies show that the RT-PCR test used for SARS-CoV2 (or should I say the different PCR methods used in different countries), gives about 80% false positives, i.e. they are totally unreliable.
I myself have analyzed the basic study that sets standards for SARS-Cov-2 detection (Corman VM, Drosten C. et al. 2020. Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR. Euro Surveill 25. Doi: 10.2807 / 1560 7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045), and I found that the authors themselves implicitly admit that their test has about 70% probability of success; while a more detailed analysis, which I cannot develop here, shows that in fact the degree of real detection probability is much lower.
These do not seem to be very solid grounds for closing the world economy!
Then there is the problem of infectivity or contagiousness: how is it possible that a virus from China, which is said to be the most contagious in history, jumps from China, bypassing entire continents, and ends up in two small Italian cities, Bergamo and Brescia? And then, how is it possible that the super contagious virus from Bergamo and Brescia has not massively infected Milan?
In Bergamo and Brescia there were 800 deaths attributed to Covid-19 before Italy proceeded to lockdown; in the 3 weeks from the start of the alleged infection to the blockade, how is it possible that Milan, a city of 5 million people, which is practically joined to Bergamo by a series of cities that connect the two neighboring cities, one month after the infection Instead of the tens of thousands of infected and thousands of deaths that might have been expected, it had only 1,000 infected and not even 100 dead?
So, this virus is so smart that it is contagious when it wants to be and non-contagious when it doesn't (which by the way raises the most fundamental questions: how can a piece of RNA covered by a protein, i.e. a molecule, want something? We treat viruses as if they were alive, but they are not, they are just molecular compounds).
And let's take a look at epidemiology. Some people claim that there has been a great wave of deaths around the world. Where is it? The only place where there are apparently above-average deaths are still the two provinces of Bergamo and Brescia, where about 2/3 of all Italian deaths have occurred.
Which once again raises the question as to why such a dangerous and super-contagious virus affects only those two provinces (some critics argue that it is because those two provinces were indeed the subject of a massive vaccination campaign, which administered 185,000 flu shots and more than 35,000 meningococcal vaccines at the same time during the month of December 2019 - but let's not open this discussion now)
In any case, the total deaths attributed to the coronavirus in Italy, after two months, were just over 7,500. Now, were they definitely due to the coronavirus? Well, given the unreliability of the test, it's hard to say, isn't it?
However, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, the official scientific body of the Italian government, examined medical records of 2003 people declared deceased from coronavirus and concluded that only 24 could be considered with certainty to have died from the coronavirus, all others having an average age of 81 and 2, 3 or more life-threatening conditions (such as cancer, advanced diabetes and cardiovascular disease).
If we apply the same standard to the 9,000 people who are said to have died from coronavirus in Italy so far, that would give a total of 108 people who have died from coronavirus, an almost insignificant figure compared to the 1,800 people who die in Italy every day. But I am sure that now the ISS, considered one of the main scientific bodies in the world, is and will be ignored as if they were the last of the charlatans ...
In any case, even if we decide to attribute all 9,000 people to SARS-Cov-2 with an average age of 79.5 years and with at least 1 (24%), 2 (25%) or 3 (49.8%) ) lethal pathologies, 9,000 deaths in two months make about 4,500 deaths a month; even if it would not be fair to multiply that number by 12, since in winter there are obviously more people dying from respiratory problems. However if we multiply it by 12, we get 54,000 people who died from respiratory problems caused by the coronavirus.
In recent years in Italy the number of people who have died from respiratory diseases has been stable - between 53,000 and 55,000. These are the numbers available on the ISTAT website, the national statistics institute. Are we simply calling the same respiratory problems that people die of at this time of year by another name?
Are we obsessively paying attention to an absolutely normal death toll as an unprecedented catastrophe just because respiratory deaths are put on the front page of all media 24/7? The authentic figures seem to suggest that.
I know I've continued for a long time, and I apologise, but my doubts are many and I need to be enlightened. However, l suspect that mainstream voices will adopt their usual tactic towards awkward questions: ignore them!
Translation: David Montoute
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