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Trump's "revolution" and a settling of accounts (Part 2)
Daniel Vaz de Carvalho
17 February 2025
4. Towards a multipolar world
By assuming the end of the unipolar world, Trump brought about a sort of "revolution" in US geopolitical thinking – European vassals count for little or nothing. Washington's "rules-based order" had collapsed, replaced by organisations such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Eurasian Economic Union, which have developed integration processes based on consensus and a balance of interests. Even more than in the US, the EU/NATO media do not want this to be known. They do not provide credible answers to the problems, persisting in their propagandistic fantasy world that does not exist – and never did...
The war in Ukraine, after the expansion of NATO and the 2014 coup in Kiev, seeking to make Russia a surrounded, isolated and subjugated country, ended up reshaping geopolitics, military alliances and global trade. They forgot that other empires lost their way trying to dominate those vast steppes.
Even a significant terminology used by the empire is no longer applicable. There is no globally identifiable "world order." "Globalism" is over because the planet has been divided into blocs of nations like the BRICS. "International law" loses its meaning when thousands of sanctions are illegally imposed on dozens of countries, including Russia and China, but those responsible for the massacres in Palestine are applauded in Washington and supported in the EU.
The "international community" that the hegemon had defined based on alignment with its decisions no longer exists in the same way. Neoliberalism is rejected by most countries, as are the "universal human values" promoted by NGOs which have been discredited as imperialist agents. As for "human rights" and the defense of "democracy," they have been lost in the massacres in Gaza and in Ukraine's celebration of the Nazi criminal Stephan Bandera and other SS men.
A new geopolitical system has been formed outside of US control. Russia and China are pushing for an "alternative world order," with which India is aligned. The BRICS summit in Kazan in October 2024, attended by leaders of 36 countries, formalized the end of the unipolar world and the West’s inability to marginalize Russia and Putin, putting Western hegemony in check. The reality of de-dollarization proves this: 46 countries have started to conduct transactions in national currencies and 53 countries have openly opposed the dollar. (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/40374, Telegram, 05/01)
The neocons housed in the Democratic Party were losing their minds and dragging the world into an all-out war. Believing themselves to be exceptional, they turned diplomacy into a form of lying and blackmail, disregarding their interlocutors, violating signed treaties (Minsk) and commitments (Taiwan, NATO expansion) and hiding behind the coverage of their media. The decisive way to deal with issues was through force and the destruction of everything that opposed them: wars, invasions, "color revolutions", sanctions, everything seemed permissible and justifiable to them. As the Nazi leaders said: no one holds victors accountable. The problem is that the US was not, and is not the victor, either militarily or economically.
The G7's share of the global economy in terms of purchasing power parity is already lower than that of the BRICS, which represent 3.6 billion people, 45% of the world's population, and 36% of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity, exceeding the G7's 29.3% and the EU's 14.5%. The BRICS are expected to grow by 4% in 2024, compared to the G7's 1.7%.
At a global level, they hold 21.4% of the world's gold reserves; 23.8% of cereals; 53.3% of meat; 52.3% of gas; 42.7% of oil; 40.8% of coal; 72% of rare earths, 75% of manganese and 50% of graphite". Russia, China and the DPRK account for about 90% of the world's tungsten production, a crucial metal for weapons manufacturing, and China has imposed export controls on its export, as well as export controls on four other minerals with applications in high-tech industries.
Of the ten busiest container seaports, seven are in China, one in South Korea and one in Singapore. Most of the world's trade takes place in the East. European vassals cover their heads so as not to see that they have become simply a peninsula of the Eurasian continent.
The presence of Russia and China in Africa opens a path for African countries to free themselves from neocolonialism and the impositions of the IMF and WB. The DPRK is no longer an isolated country, Iran is an important political and military power in the region. As for the illusions of the US being the most advanced country in scientific research and development, despite accumulating Nobel Prize winners (!), China registered 1.58 million patents in 2022, almost half of the global applications, more than three times as many as the US.
US hegemony consisted of defining national interests as international interests. During the period of the rise of empires, there was an expansion of trade and production. This phase ended when the costs of increasing or simply maintaining the existing expansion were no longer offset by the profits obtained. Intensifying competition, and ever-increasing administrative and military expenditures contributed to this.
By becoming dependent on external financing and reduced real economic activity, the US found itself in the situation that is characteristic of the end of empires. Financialization only delayed the inevitable, with several crises following one another until it exploded in 2008. Since then, the imbalances have only increased. Hegemony was prolonged with financial tricks and coercion, but also with what became its main non-nuclear weapon: propaganda.
5 – Military weaknesses
The neocons’ policy was based on the idea that they could finance – and possibly fight – three wars in three different parts of the world at the same time. This irrational policy – omitting its criminal aspects – ignored the fact that the US had basically prepared itself militarily to fight imperial wars abroad, against weak opponents, underestimating the need to defend its national territory. The US has no defence against the Russian Sarmats that could attack the US from the south, or the Poseidon submarine missile capable of devastating coastal areas or aircraft carrier fleets.
The dilemma of neocon hallucinations lies in the excessive consumption of dollars, involving the empire in wars it did not win or, in the case of Ukraine, without knowing how to get out of them. Wars are expensive and the question that always ends up being asked is: who pays for them?
As much as the idiotic EU/NATO propaganda wants to present military production as economic development, it is unproductive expenditure. If exported, they become tradable goods, but for those who buy them they are always unproductive expenses, even if they may be necessary to defend the country's sovereignty. However, in NATO, the opposite is true: the more weapons they buy from the US or want to produce (against Russia?), the less sovereignty they have.
In Ukraine, the illusion of Western military supremacy has been shattered. China's maneuvers around Taiwan show that US maritime dominance in the region has been called into question. The US and the EU/NATO can protest and threaten, but they have no idea how to go to war or apply (more) sanctions that do not backfire on them. The rest of the world now evaluates them based on reality.
NATO's "famous" Abrams, Leopard and Challenger tanks have met their graveyard in Ukraine or have been put on display in Moscow to the delight of locals and foreign visitors – potential former buyers. EU/NATO air defense is virtually non-existent against hypersonic missiles or even certain types of drones. The US situation is not much different. The Patriot missiles are insufficient against the most advanced Russian hypersonic missiles, its southern border is defenseless, and creating a defense of the same nature as the Russian S-400 or S-500 would take years, not to mention the costs.
Of course, in a confrontation with the US, Russia would not be unscathed, despite the effectiveness of the S-400 and S-500, but neither would the US, which has no defenses against the Poseidon, the Sarmat and Yars ballistic missiles, the Buresvetnik nuclear-powered missile, or the Avangard cruise missile that reaches Mach 28. The Kinzhals, with a range of 2,000 km and Mach 10, are designed to attack aircraft carriers. The new Oreshnik carrier missile adds to Russia's unparalleled capability in a European conflict.
Commentators can now lament or be indignant. Before the nonsense they have been spouting for months on end, they should have thought about which industries, which components, which technologies they would put at the service of the neocons' wars. And beyond that, something very simple... with what fuel? The cognitive delirium of the West, leaving aside constructive solutions, has only deepened its contradictions and failures. That is why the triumphalist propaganda of the commentators has given way to a kind of whining...
“Europe,” Macron proclaimed, will lose all credibility if Russia wins in Ukraine. This was prophetic... As in the fable, all he had to do was say how and who was going to place bell on the cat's neck. And that is, how he planned to beat Russia.
The US military weaknesses were also clearly visible to the Houthis (those of NATO were ridiculous). The US Defense Intelligence Agency in a report on the Houthi attacks, revealed Washington's failure to protect one of the world's most important waterways. The so-called naval coalition was not only unable to guarantee security in the Red Sea, but the Houthis improved their actions and increased their arsenal with more effective weapons, putting the hegemon in check despite the hundreds of millions of dollars spent.
Trump and his team know that their armed forces urgently need to renew themselves. The essence of its military power, aircraft carriers and military bases spread across the globe, have become fragile targets, with insufficient – and ultra-expensive – defenses against missiles from Russia, China, DPRK, Iran. In particular, aircraft carrier groups have been rendered obsolete by long-range precision and hypersonic weapons capable of sinking them from a safe distance.
Militarily, the United States is not competitive in terms of both production and development: it has failed to develop usable hypersonic weapons systems and is far behind in anti-missile defense technology.
However, the greatest weakness of the bellicose fury that Western elites have promoted are certainly the protests against the war both in the USA and throughout the EU/NATO, expressing themselves against Israel's actions, in solidarity with the Palestinian people and against involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, demanding an end to the wars and serious negotiations.
6 – The Trump “revolution” – contradictions
The USA, like the EU/NATO, has been living in a virtual bubble created by false prophets such as the "End of History" prophet and the neoliberal madness of Hayek, Friedman and the like. This is no longer sustainable. The USA finds itself immersed in deep contradictions in its economic, social and military capacities. The oligarchy associated with Trump seems to understand this.
Vice President Vance went to Munich to treat EU/NATO politicians harshly, like a disgruntled master with his vassals, signalling a greater military expenditure for them, as well as the end of Russophobia: The biggest threat to Europe, Vance said, "is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within. The retreat of Europe from...its most fundamental values...” He spoke about the annulled elections in Romania and that something similar could happen in Germany. Listening intently, as Putin had said, von der Leyen considers that the EU "has to adapt to new realities" (!) and Mark Rutte changed his position on Ukraine's chances of joining NATO. Of Vance's speech, Trump said, "I thought he gave a brilliant speech. Europe needs to be careful." (!) (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/43733, Telegram, 14/02)
Vance refused to meet with Scholz. According to a US official, Vance considers that Scholz "will not be chancellor for a long time" and there is no need to meet with him. Previously, Scholz had stated that he did not recognize negotiations when Ukraine was under pressure. Some whining commentators say Trump made Putin a world leader. This phrase reflects your inability to understand reality...
Six major media corporations own 90% of what the people of the United States see, hear and read, determining what is "important", what is discussed, and what should be ignored. And although their influence extends to dedicated European vassals, theirs lie cannot overcome reality.
Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, when confronted by a journalist, questions this situation and introduces an aspect of Trump's "revolution": "I'm fed up with the Washington press. Your assumptions are ignorant, and you are absolutely disconnected and clueless about what's important in life and to Americans. Why don't you address what's important to people?" It is these aspects that now make the "Atlanticists" feel like orphans of the neocon Democratic Party, the bubble of lies in which they have been living satisfied them, even if the only way to maintain the narrative was to push the world into a global war.
In addition to how erratic Trump is or appears to be, he expresses the oligarchy's awareness of the decline of US power. These erratic moves include the taking of positions of strength, even if they seem inconsequential, in order to advance his program, forcing allies to obey and negotiating with those that the Necons had presented as enemies, and transforming them simply into rivals.
In foreign policy, perhaps the most complex problem is the quagmire in the Middle East, where contradictory interests face each other between Türkiye, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although with assurances of support for Nethanyau, Trump showed him that he has no intention of getting involved in new wars, as he intends to prioritize internal US issues. Trump aides have informed Israeli officials that the new US administration aims to bring stability to the Middle East by focusing on promoting peace between Israel and Lebanon and keeping the ceasefire going.
The Zionist objective of pushing the US into war with Iran has all but been eliminated. When Trump declared that he wanted to transform the Gaza Strip into a luxury tourism zone, he made regional protagonists speak out, highlighting Israel's isolation.
Saudi Arabia, in a statement by Mohammed bin Salman, reacted harshly, saying that it would not establish ties with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state, guaranteeing that its position was "firm, non-negotiable and unshakable" and that it "would not interrupt its tireless work for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital". The "violation of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people by Israel's settlement, annexation and displacement policies" was categorically rejected: "this issue was clearly stipulated for both the previous and current US administration."
Netanyahu would do well to look to Zelensky's example, as Saudi Arabia is much more important to US goals than Israel is, which appears to be a huge financial burden.
At the root of the issues is the economic problem. Leaving aside the oligarchs paying for the crisis, all that remains is to make the allies pay to be oligarchs and cut spending. Something that involves coming into conflict with the imperial bureaucracy. This task is given to Elon Musk who, with his DOGE, has already started investigations into how government employees with salaries of a few hundred thousand dollars accumulate tens of millions in net worth, "mysteriously, they became rich", joked Musk. The Pentagon is also in the crosshairs: with a budget of 850 billion (2024) how can the organization not undergo an audit and say where this money went? (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/43508, Telegram, 12/02)
Musk wants to close Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty and Voice of America: “It's just people talking to themselves while they burn 1 billion a year. According to NBC, several consulates may be closed to save State Department funds. Of course, there are reactions and protests from employees of the supervised bodies. Judges raised obstacles to Musk investigations - Trump reacts: "It seems hard to believe that judges would want to try to stop us from eliminating corruption. It seems hard to believe that a judge could say: We don't want you to do this. So maybe we have to look at the judges because I think this is a very serious violation." The tension also affects the FED, with serious accusations from Trump to its president for triggering and not solving the inflationary crisis by refusing to cut interest rates and having manipulated them to help the banks and Wall Street against the small ones in the past (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/43551, Telegram, 12/02)
We are thus faced with signs of a crisis not only of hegemony, but of the hegemon itself. Trump, assuming the current decline, wants to lead the dominant oligarchy to rebuild a new hegemony. The question is: how? In any case, says Pepe Escobar, what remains to be seen is how deeply the “rules-based international order” will be buried.
Jeffrey Sachs Just Exposed the Truth They Don’t Want You to Hear
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