Five points on the assassination of Nasrallah

 

Friday, September 27, 2024 is a pivotal moment in the history of Lebanon. It is comparable in importance to September 14, 1982 (the assassination of Bashir Gemayel) and February 14, 2005 (the assassination of Rafik Hariri).

Fady Al-Ahmar - Asas Media

For three decades, Sayyed Nasrallah dominated the political arena in Lebanon. His influence extended beyond Lebanon to the wider region, and his fame spread throughout the world. Foreign media outlets have often broadcast his speeches and it is no exaggeration to say that leaders of countries sometimes waited upon what Nasrallah would say to formulate their policies in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Hence, the repercussions of his assassination will extend beyond the party and beyond Lebanon to the region as a whole. What comes after September 27 will not be the same as what came before it, especially since this assassination exposed new realities while confirming older ones.

Iran distances itself

1- Let us start with the reality of Iran and its arms dealings in the region. Under the pretext of not falling into the trap of a comprehensive war, Tehran is distancing itself from the military confrontation that broke Hamas in Gaza and shook the structure of the party. If the confrontation in Gaza is the responsibility of Yahya Sinwar, who decided to attack on October 7 without Iran's knowledge, then the support war launched by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah came at the request of Iran and in coordination with it. For two weeks, the party has been subjected to mass and individual assassinations, sometimes by bombs and sometimes by missiles. Iran has been content to issue mere threats and intimidation. Its attack on the first of this month was no different from the attack on April 13, except for the killing of a Palestinian man. It was an attack to save face with their allies and to send a message to Israel and America that targeting Iranian strategic facilities will not go unanswered, because Iran's priority is to preserve the regime and protect its nuclear project. Therefore, Iran's role in the war on Lebanon will be restricted to simply assisting and supporting the Party of God. It will not participate directly. The division of opinions in the emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council called for by the Supreme Leader after the assassination of Nasrallah gave a clear indication. Ali Khamenei's statement after the assassination of Nasrallah confirmed this. He said that "the resistance forces will stand by the Hezbollah," rather than the Revolutionary Guards doing so, and that "Lebanon will make the evil and outcast invading enemy regret its actions," rather than Iran performing this role. He called on "Muslims to stand by the Lebanese people and the Hezbollah, which is proud of its capabilities, and to help confront the usurping and malicious regime," rather than calling on Iranians to do this.

Nasrallah's Mistake

2- The second fact is the mistake of the Hezbollah and its late leader in assessing the military situation at the beginning of their support war. Nasrallah knew about Israel's air and technological superiority, but he did not appreciate the extent of the security breach of his military and security apparatus. What was reported yesterday in the British newspaper "Financial Times" was revealed to us by George Malbrunot, chief journalist of "Le Figaro", in an interview we conducted with him on the "Asas" website. Malbrunot said that the party's involvement in the Syrian war and its recruitment of large numbers of soldiers were an opportunity for Israel to penetrate it security-wise. This breach is what allowed the Mossad to provide the Israeli army with accurate information about the presence of military officials in the Party and their movements, even accompanying the Hezbollah leader on his way to chair a meeting in the suburb and assassinating him. We had written in a previous article in "Asas" (dated August 1, 2024) following the assassination of Fouad Shukr that "this brings us back to the talk of Israeli officials about Israel's ability to target Hassan Nasrallah himself. These are words that should have been taken seriously after Fouad Shukr was targeted. 

3- The third fact is that the Hezbollah, after the series of assassinations that began months ago and targeted its military leaders, was unable to dismantle any of the Israeli spy networks within its organisation. In his last appearance, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the decision to respond to the bombings on Tuesday and Wednesday would be within a narrow circle, indicating their size with his hands. However, his assassination showed that the security breach is also within this circle. And Israel continues to carry out assassinations. This is what Netanyahu announced in his speech at the United Nations. His Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, confirmed it, saying that the assassination of Nasrallah is not the last thing they would do. Indeed, the assassination of party leaders continues in Lebanon and Syria.

Destabilizing the Hezbollah and destroying Lebanon

4- The fifth fact is that the Hezbollah not only suffered a major blow, as the Sayyed said in his last speech, but its political and military structures and frameworks were also shaken, especially after the assassination of its Secretary-General and senior leaders who were meeting with him. This makes it weaker in confronting Israel in this war. The election of a new Secretary-General and the appointment of a leader to replace his assassinated predecessor does not mean that the party has recovered and will regain the initiative. The blow is deep. Recovery from it will take months and perhaps years, and it is difficult to achieve during this type of war. Perhaps that is why the late Nasrallah agreed to a ceasefire, as Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib revealed on CNN. [FW comment: This cannot be confirmed and is conceivably disinformation, since Nasrallah always linked a ceasefire to the end of hostilities in Gaza]

5- Last but not least, we must recall the truth that everyone knows, which is that Lebanon is not ready or able to bear this war either politically, economically, or socially. Ministers declare daily that their ministries are unable to bear the burden of displacement, which will reach the threshold of one million Lebanese and Syrian refugees. If the war continues, the little aid that reaches Lebanon today will stop tomorrow if Israel bombs the airport and surrounds the port.

The war on Lebanon is in its early stages. The confrontations in the south are at their most intense. All eyes are on the Israeli response to Iran, especially after it became known that it will be coordinated by the United States. Is targeting the Iranian nuclear program the goal? Will Netanyahu succeed in dragging Washington into this war?

The next few days will provide us with the answers. Perhaps they will reach us during the period between writing these lines and publishing them.

Source: Lebanon Files