The assassination of Ali Larijani, like that of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei before him, must be understood within a pattern that could be called strategic martyrdom.
Xavier Villar
March 18th, 2026 (leer en castellano)
This dynamic highlights the limitations of Israel and the United States' reliance on decapitation strategies, particularly in the face of recurring historical failures. The decapitation-attrition-invasion playbook that Washington and Tel Aviv seem to follow reveals systems anchored in a repertoire of violence that fails to adapt to the logic of actors with different political-strategic structures. Even Donald Trump implicitly acknowledged this limitation when he admitted that the United States attacked Iran out of "habit."
The basic premise of decapitation holds that by eliminating high-ranking leaders, the system they uphold will weaken or fragment. However, this assumption reflects a narrow instrumental rationality, where the survival of the leadership is considered the primary strategic objective and the threat of death is presumed to function as effective coercion. Iran, in contrast, operates under a value-strategic rationale in which martyrdom can play a political role and produce strategic effects that not only resist but reverse the intended effects of the decapitation.
Larijani's attendance at mass rallies and his issuance of statements acknowledging the possibility of his death demonstrate that this logic is consciously adopted by leaders who understand its implications. This perspective had already been expressed by Khamenei, who stated that "either we are martyred on this path, whose honor is eternal, or we achieve victory; both are victories for us." The underlying logic is not epic, but strategic: it transforms the elimination of a leader into a vector of political resilience and institutional cohesion.
By turning assassinated figures into symbols of justice and resistance, following the historical tradition of Imam Hussein at Karbala, martyrdom redefines the intended effects of the decapitation strategy. This mechanism of internal mobilization legitimizes the political order, reinforces institutional continuity, and amplifies social resilience. The death of a high-ranking official does not indicate a failure of the system; it reflects that its structure rests on principles that transcend the mere physical survival of its leaders. This understanding eludes those who conceive of assassination campaigns as instruments of direct pressure.
The logic of strategic martyrdom is clearly embodied in Larijani. The disappearance of a figure who operated at the intersection of security, politics, and diplomacy does not paralyze the system; it activates its internal mechanisms of adaptation, integrating it into the leadership of Mukhta Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. What in a Western analysis might be interpreted as a loss of internal diversity confirms, for the Iranian system, that its survival depends on adhering to a political logic where sacrifice and continuity are mutually reinforcing. The question is not who will fill Larijani's shoes, but how his example will strengthen the resolve of those who continue the institutional work.
Larijani cannot be simplistically classified as a hawk or a dove, categories of Western convenience. He was a first-rate political operator, capable of translating the logic of the battlefield into a language understandable to both orthodox sectors and pragmatic factions. His value lay not only in the information he possessed or the international contacts he maintained, but also in his ability to build internal consensus within a system that, under extreme pressure, needs to articulate coordinated responses. He represented a bridge between military logic and the strategic projection of the state. His absence implies that future political articulation will absorb his experience and integrate it into a narrative of continuity where each martyr adds legitimacy to the common cause.
The timing of his death underscores this interpretation. The attack occurred when the US- and Israeli-led coalition had accumulated tactical successes: bombings of Iranian military infrastructure, pressure in the Gulf, and ground operations in southern Lebanon. However, the adversary's strategic collapse has not yet materialized. The Islamic Republic maintains a military response capability, employing missiles and drones against Israeli command centers and through proxies in Iraq, Syria, and the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran's effective control, regulating the global flow of energy with far-reaching political and economic implications. The war, now in its eighteenth day, is taking on the characteristics of a war of attrition where political resistance and institutional organization are as crucial as firepower.
In this context, the elimination of Larijani serves a broader purpose: if the system cannot be subdued militarily, the aim is to reduce its capacity to formulate strategic responses. The coalition seeks to prolong the war to wear down the adversary. This strategy, however, underestimates the Iranian logic: each blow becomes an institutional reinforcement that consolidates the very structures it was intended to weaken. Iran has reiterated that it will not seek a ceasefire until the balance of deterrence is altered, and every action against its leaders strengthens internal cohesion and strategic resolve. The more the coalition insists on decapitation, the more evident it becomes that martyrdom constitutes a central axis of resistance.
The opposing side shows signs of attrition that transcend the military sphere and affect domestic politics. Dissension within the US security apparatus, with the departure of officials like Joe Kent, reflects a profound debate about the direction and coherence of the war. These are not minor tactical disagreements, but rather a fracture in the understanding of strategic objectives. More tangible is the operational attrition: the withdrawal of the USS Gerald Ford to the Mediterranean and the redeployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln limit the capacity for immediate power projection in the Gulf and the Red Sea. The degradation of radar and surveillance coverage, damaged by sustained Iranian attacks, reduces the coalition's flexibility. The war machine shows signs of fatigue with clear political and strategic implications.
Internationally, the US administration's efforts to present the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a central objective are met with a lukewarm response from European and Asian allies. Reluctant to bear the direct costs of a conflict whose economic consequences they are already facing, and with the Gulf states under increasing pressure on their energy infrastructure, the coalition is holding together on a narrower political base than anticipated. The gap between stated objectives and actual readiness limits both operational capacity and political cohesion. Each day without a resolution erodes this base, while Iran watches as time favors those who exercise strategic patience with discipline.
The trajectory of the conflict indicates a strategic stalemate. The US-Israeli coalition is accumulating tactical victories, but none have broken Iran's will or capacity for resistance. The assassination of Larijani illustrates this dynamic: a blow that deprives Iran of one of its most experienced operatives, but which simultaneously activates internal cohesion mechanisms, making the resolution of the conflict more complex. Larijani, who built bridges throughout his life, becomes a symbol of unity. His example will be a guiding light in times of uncertainty, and his memory will reinforce the strategic determination to continue the resistance.In Tehran, the political response focuses on institutional continuity. Far from fragmenting, the country's leadership is unified around the shared experience of aggression and the need for coherent responses that incorporate the sacrifice of the martyrs. This is not a naive belief in military victory, but rather a political analysis of the balance of power: as long as external pressure does not produce internal fractures, and as long as each blow can be transformed into a pillar of legitimacy through the logic of strategic martyrdom, the capacity for resistance remains the Islamic Republic's principal asset. The war is entering a phase where politics, understood as a system's capacity to endure and transform adversity into cohesion, outweighs any blow on the ground. Larijani's death, while silencing a voice with a distinct character, does not alter the fundamental equation: the system's survival is the central objective, and the capacity to absorb pain and translate it into symbolism constitutes a strategic resource that no campaign of decapitation can neutralize.
The paradox that war planners fail to grasp is clear: the more blows they strike, the stronger the adversary becomes. The logic of strategic martyrdom transforms each assassination into a political boost for the victim. Larijani, like Khamenei before him, will not be remembered as a victim, but as a figure whose disappearance strengthens the system's cohesion. As long as this logic persists, the war cannot be resolved solely through military means. The US-led coalition, in its instrumental rationality, clings to a playbook that empirical evidence proves inadequate. The question is not whether there will be more attacks, but whether those who carry them out understand that each martyrdom strengthens what they intended to weaken. Events suggest they do not. This limited understanding defines the true strategic dimension of the conflict.
Source: https://www.hispantv.com/noticias/opinion/641757/asesinato-ali-larijani-logica-martirio-estrategico
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