Mexico News Daily TV
January 13th 2026
In
a major shift in Latin American energy politics, Mexico has just
overtaken Venezuela as Cuba's number one oil supplier. But here's the
twist. Mexico isn't actually sending that much more oil than before. So,
what's really going on here? And why is this development catching the
attention of the Trump administration?
This story puts Mexico directly in the crosshairs of US foreign policy demands, potentially forcing a choice between regional solidarity and avoiding economic consequences from Washington. Let's start with the facts. According to new industry data reported by the Financial Times, Mexico sent an average of 12,284 barrels of oil per day to Cuba in 2025. That accounts for 44% of Cuba's total crude imports. Venezuela, which has historically been Cuba's main oil lifeline, only managed to export an average of 9,528 barrels per day to the island. That's just 34% of Cuba's imported crude. Russia comes in a distant third. Now, you might think Mexico dramatically ramped up deliveries to Cuba. Mexican shipments to Cuba increased by 56% compared to 2024. That's significant, sure, but it's not what pushed Mexican shipments into first place. The real story here isn't about Mexico sending more. It's about Venezuela sending dramatically less. Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba have plummeted by 63% since 2023. That's a catastrophic drop that's created a vacuum Mexico has stepped in to fill.
So, how did Mexico get so involved in supplying oil to Cuba in the first place? This goes back to the previous administration under President López Obrador. According to a December report from the watchdog organisation, Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity. Mexico's state-owned oil company PEMME subsidised the shipment of at least 10 million barrels of oil to Cuba during López Obrador's last two years in office. Between July 2023 and September 2024 alone, PEMMEX shipped crude oil and refined products to Cuba worth approximately $869 million US. These shipments went through a PMEX subsidiary called Gasolina's Biennar. That's a lot of oil and a lot of money. When current president Claudia Sheinbaum was asked about this at a press conference, she was careful with her words. She stated, "We are not sending more oil than we have historically." And acknowledged that with Venezuela's current situation, Mexico has naturally become an important supplier. She emphasised that some shipments are contractual obligations while others are part of historical aid arrangements between the two countries.
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. Why have Venezuelan oil exports collapsed so dramatically? Venezuela sits on some of the world's largest oil reserves, yet its oil industry has been in free fall for years. The country has faced a combination of mismanagement, underinvestment in infrastructure, US sanctions, and economic crisis that has devastated its production capacity. For decades, Venezuela and Cuba maintained a special relationship with Venezuela providing heavily subsidised oil to Cuba in exchange for Cuban doctors, teachers, and technical assistance. This arrangement was vital for Cuba's survival, especially given the long-standing US embargo. But as Venezuela's own economy imploded, it simply couldn't maintain those shipment levels anymore. The 63% drop in Venezuelan shipments since 2023 represents not just a number, but a fundamental shift in regional alliances and capabilities. Cuba has been forced to diversify its oil sources just to keep the lights on. And Mexico has been there to help fill the gap, whether out of solidarity, commercial interest, or both.
This brings us to perhaps the most significant aspect of this story for the future. The Trump administration's response. The incoming US administration has made it abundantly clear that any oil shipments to Cuba are viewed as defying American demands. Trump officials have stated that they expect Mexico and other Latin American nations to play what they call "a constructive regional role aligned with US foreign policy goals". In plain English, that means stop helping Cuba. These oil shipments have now become another point of tension in the relationship between the Trump administration and Mexico. Trump has been making escalating threats against Mexico on various issues, and Cuba policy is now added to that list. The question is, will Mexico bow to US pressure and reduce its oil shipments to Cuba? Or will President Sheinbaum maintain that these are legitimate contracts and historical commitments that Mexico intends to honor? This puts Mexico in a difficult position, caught between maintaining its foreign policy, independence, and managing its crucial relationship with its northern neighbour.
Zooming out, this situation tells us a lot about the current state of Latin American geopolitics. We're witnessing a regional realignment. As Venezuela's influence continues to wane, countries are having to make difficult choices about where they stand. With Washington's preferences or with their own regional partners and principles for Cuba, this is about survival. The island is heavily dependent on imported oil for everything from electricity generation to transportation. Without reliable suppliers, Cuba faces potential energy crises that could destabilise an already fragile economy. The fact that Cuba now needs to rely on multiple suppliers rather than one major partner, also makes its energy security more precarious. For Mexico, this is a test of its foreign policy principles. Mexico has historically maintained an independent foreign policy, particularly regarding Cuba. But with Trump threatening consequences, we'll see whether economic pressure can override those principles. It's worth watching how this plays out over the coming months.
The story of Mexico becoming Cuba's top oil supplier isn't really about Mexico sending more. It's about Venezuela being unable to send what it used to and about the pressures that regional powers like Mexico face in navigating their relationships in an increasingly polarised hemisphere. As we move through 2026, this will be one to watch.
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